FIDE World Cup R2: So, Niemann, Nepomniachtchi, and Nihal eliminated

Tournament Information

The FIDE World Cup is one of the most prestigious events of the chess calendar every two years. It is the largest knockout tournament and awards three Candidates spots to the first three finishers. 206 players are playing the tournament, with each round only growing in intensity. The time control is 90+30 for the first 40 moves, with an extra 30 minutes after move 40. Matches are played in sets of two: first, a classical portion of 2 games. If the result remains tied, the players play 15+10 games, then, if still tied, 10+10 games, then 5+3, then 3+2, and finally, if still tied, a deciding Armageddon game.

Watch and replay all the games in our broadcast.

Pairings for Round 3

The pairings for round 3 are available here.

Overview

The top 50 seeds were automatically qualified for round 2 and some very surprising results took place. GM Wesley So (5th seed), GM Hans Moke Niemann (10th seed), GM Ian Nepomniachtchi (12th seed) and GM Nihal Sarin (22nd seed) were all eliminated by GM Titas Stremavičius (133rd seed), GM Lorenzo Lodici (119th seed), GM Diptayan Ghosh (117th seed), and GM Stamatis Kourkoulos-Arditis (107th seed), respectively. GM Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa was taken deep into tiebreaks by the Australian GM Temur Kuybokarov and the Argentinian prodigy IM Faustino Oro was only eliminated against GM Vidit Gujrathi in the rapid tiebreaks, due to a blunder in severe time trouble.

Interviews

Make sure to check out all of our interviews from the World Cup on our YouTube channel!

GM Anish Giri:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or-CTYnWSFs

GM Vincent Keymer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQWdGY3gfBc

Classical Upsets

GM Wesley So, the 5th seed, should have had a fairly easy match ahead of him against the 133rd seed, Lithuanian GM Titas Stremavičius, rated over 200 points lower than So.

While So missed his winning chances in the first game with White, it was now Stremavičius' turn to start with the white pieces in the second game. He chose the less common 7. h3 in the QGD: Three Knights Variation. Four moves later, the same pawn on h3 now supported White's push to g4, attacking Black's bishop and demonstrating the underdog's commitment to dynamic play, rather than going down in the potentially following tiebreaks against the American speed chess specialist.

In a position that was becoming more and more uncomfortable for Black, facing White's powerful bishop pair, So must have miscalculated the sequence of trades after 21...Rfe8 - or simply overlooked it.

In the end, the clear favourite So was a piece for two pawns down without any compensation and was on his way to being eliminated in his first match of the FIDE World Cup 2025. But with 51. Bb5, Stremavičius allowed So to trade queens and head into a drawn endgame, which just 7 moves later turned into a winning endgame for White again after 58...h3.

One of the most talked about and heartbreaking moments of the tournament so far should follow: In a theoretically won endgame for White, that seemed only a matter of time for Stremavičius to convert, he played 70. a4 and suddenly the position was drawn again. Unfortunately for So - already very low on time - he didn't see the unexpected and hard-to-find continuation, and resigned after 72. Ke3 - in a still drawn position! Stremavičius advances to Round 3 and So, one of the favourites to win the tournament, is eliminated.

The stalemate position that So would have needed to see for the drawn continuation. Black to move (or not move, in this case):

Credit: Michal Walusza / FIDE

Another major upset occurred in the match between the 12th seed, GM Ian Nepomniachtchi, and the 119th seed, GM Diptayan Ghosh. Neither player seemed very eager to fight in the first game, which ended in a dull draw after 30 moves.

Nepomniachtchi started the second game with 1. e4, continuing with the Anti-Marshall variation of the Ruy Lopez, but found himself in a very passive position after 17. Nd2.

Without any good options available, Nepomniachtchi gave up a pawn, and after trading queens on move 26, he was now doomed to head into a bad endgame; a pawn down with a terrible structure that could be easily exploited.

There was no way for Nepomniachtchi to find counter-play from this position and equalize. With Ghosh playing solidly and showing no nerves against the two-time world championship challenger, Nepomniachtchi ultimately resigned - still a pawn down in the rook endgame, while Black was going to invade the second rank on the next move to attack White's c2-pawn, having the option and plenty of time to also go for the g4-pawn.

Watch our interview with GM Diptayan Ghosh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejti_qyNCKI

Another upset super grandmaster was GM Aravindh Chithambaram. The winner of this year's Prague Chess Festival and the Stepan Avagyan Memorial played against compatriot GM Karthik Venkataraman. They drew their first game and Karthik, playing as Black in the second game, was able to get into a same-colored bishop endgame with a pawn up. Aravindh resigned and Karthik won the match.

Tiebreak Upsets

GM Hans Moke Niemann had to face the former Italian chess champion GM Lorenzo Lodici. Lodici had a slight advantage in the first classical game, but far from a winning edge, and the game ended in a draw after 43 moves. The second game was even more equal and the players shared the points after 39 moves. The match went to the tiebreaks.

Lodici was able to get a very comfortable start out of the opening in the first rapid tiebreak game. Niemann worsened his position with 25...Qg6 and was in a battle to draw the game.

The Italian grandmaster played flawlessly until 45. Bc7, which could have given Niemann hope to get back into the game. With both players being low on time, mistakes were made on both sides now. The evaluation bar went up and down after 46...Be6, 48. h3, 50...Ke6, 53. Ke3, 53... Rh8. But Lodici still always held onto an advantage - until he played 65. Bd4, followed by 66. Rxc8.

The position was now theoretically drawn, as White wouldn't be able to promote either pawn. But Niemann blundered with 72...Rg1, instead of 72...Rg2 or 72...Rg3, which allowed Lodici to activate his bishop after pushing the f-pawn and to protect the g1-square, taking away Black's crucial defensive check on the g-file.

Niemann resigned on move 77 and Lodici now only needed a draw in the next game to advance to round 3.

The only real winning chance for Niemann in the second rapid tiebreak game was after 39...Rc8.

But, instead of the best continuation, 40. Rd8, Niemann - thinking for half a minute - decided to play 40. gxh5. The following trades of bishop and rook resulted in a drawn rook vs pawn endgame, that Lodici knew how to hold. Lodici eliminates Niemann and will face GM Michael Adams in the next round.

Watch our interview with GM Lorenzo Lodici:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCTLCnXh3hg

GM Nihal Sarin and GM Stamatis Kourkoulos-Arditis drew both of their classical games before heading to the tiebreaks.

In the first tiebreak game, Kourkoulos-Arditis had a pressing advantage out of the opening, with Nihal trying to defend the advancing queen-side attack.

Somehow, the Indian grandmaster managed to get out of the trouble by giving up an exchange and walking his king over to the other side of the board: 15 moves later, the position was equal again and both players had their chances. But the position was far from easy to play and a few sub-optimal moves by Nihal, including a trade of queens, meant that Kourkoulos-Arditis regained the upper hand. Nihal lacked the resources to defend against White's material advantage and Kourkoulos-Arditis could even afford to miss a mate-in-4 on move 55 to win the game.

In the second tiebreak game, Nihal was a piece for two pawns up, but couldn't convert this advantage into a win and the game ended in a draw. Kourkoulos-Arditis defeats Nihal.

Watch our interview with GM Stamatis Kourkoulos-Arditis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMSVKWbjwyk

Near-Upsets

Some other top seeds also seemed to be in trouble, notably the 3rd seed and one of the home favourites, GM Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa who was taken deep into tiebreaks by the Australian GM Temur Kuybokarov, the 131st seed.

The 17th seed, GM Yu Yangyi, struggled with the 145th seed, GM Felix Blohberger, who showed great defence and mental resilience. Blohberger won the first tiebreak game, but was defeated after 5 more tiebreak games.

Equally, while the Argentinian prodigy, IM Faustino Oro, was eliminated by GM Vidit Gujrathi, this was only after two solid draws in the classical portion and very equal looking play in the rapid tiebreaks, until a blunder from Oro in severe time trouble. This was Oro's highest rated opponent in his career so far - great tenacity from the 12-year-old!

Watch our interview with GM Vidit Gujrathi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qerZMWhTg-Q

Honorable Mentions

The highlight of the round - and possibly even the tournament - has to go to GM Pentala Harikrishna's second game against GM Arseniy Nesterov, with a stunning queen sacrifice in the Petrov Defence. Harikrishna said he had sat on his preparation and his line, originally coming from a 1987 correspondence game, for 9 years before playing it here. With no immediate compensation for his sacrificed queen, Harikrishna relentlessly attacked Black's king, coordinating all of his minor pieces against Black's queen - even giving up an exchange sacrifice to remove Black's outpost knight - before having several mating lines against Black's king. Is this Hari's immortal?

Watch our interview with GM Pentala Harikrishna:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUMtqPtntDA

GM Wei Yi also played a beautiful game against the six-time world chess solving champion GM Kacper Piorun with a shocking 18. Bf7+. The beauty of the idea is that taking with the queen drops two pieces of material - at this level, an absolute loss. Equally, the other option of taking with the king will allow the queen to become pinned to the king. An absolutely beautiful move which gave Wei Yi the win.

Watch our interview with GM Wei Yi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3_TEFPMKhA

GM Rasmus Svane faced GM Rauf Mamedov and the match ended with the first Armageddon game of this year's World Cup, which Svane was able to win.

Watch our interview with GM Rasmus Svane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCd7YWbhHIE

Simulated Predictions

We once again simulated the tournament outcome a million times, including the results from previous rounds.

• Who is most likely to win the tournament outright?

• Who is most likely to get in the top 3?

• Who is most likely to qualify for the Candidates?

Aside from these stats:

• The chance of the 4th placed player making the Candidates is 39.9%
• The chance of a sub-2700 rated winner is 19.2%
• But the chance of a sub-2700 rated player qualifying to the Candidates is 72.0%
• And the chance two sub-2700 rated players qualifying to the Candidates is 27.3%
• The chance of a sub-2600 rated winner is 0.4%
• But chance of a sub-2600 rated player qualifying to the Candidates is 4.3%
• The chance of an Indian player winning is 25.7%
• The chance of a German player winning is 10.9%
• The chance of a Chinese player winning is 8.5%
• The chance of an American player winning is 8.2%
• The chance of an alliterative* player winning is 10.1%
• Keymer facing his long-time coach GM Péter Lékó happened in 0.3% of our simulations

*first and last name start with the same letter or sound (e.g. Richard Rapport and Yu Yangyi)